Voting in Kenya, the pattern Pre-2017 polls
Since the onset of multi party politics in Kenya in the early 90s, politicians contesting for the biggest seats in the land and who have consequently won are guided by apt plans and strategies that have ensured they rout their opponents.
Like any other developing nation, Kenyan politics are rarely driven by agenda or well laid-out party manifesto. They are guided by tribal sway, greed, euphoria and to an extent mob oratory.
In 1992, in the first ever multi-party elections in the country, the then incumbent Daniel Arap Moi managed to infiltrate the opposition because most of the presidential candidates were driven by an insentience need to get power. It’s through greed that the opposition was unable to form a solid and formidable force to get rid of Moi and in 1997, the same selfish drive was replicated.
In the 2002 general elections, the opposition with no viable way of defeating Moi’s protégé Uhuru Kenyatta unless they all worked together, managed to fan enough euphoria to secure a landslide victory against Moi’s two-decade iron rule which was characterized by grand corruption, neglect of the country’s infrastructure, a derelict economy and brazen suppressing of dissent among others.
There was hope; hope that Kenya could do better without having to shoulder debts from foreign countries; hope that there would be room for democracy to flourish; hope that Kenyans had finally elected leaders who would unite them without promoting ethnic politics and hope that Kenyans had finally elected individuals who were development conscious.
But, unfortunately, most of the elected individuals were in office because of the euphoria that had swept across the country. By the virtue of being tired with the KANU rule, Kenyans were desperate to get rid of Moi and the only formidable force was the Mwai Kibaki led NARC.
But excitement is always short-lived and after all the dancing, cheering, ululating and chest thumping after “embarrassing” Moi, Kenyans wanted promises delivered and they were in for a rude shock: grand corruption, betrayal after NARC reneged on its promise to deliver a new constitution in 100 days, nepotism, bloated cabinet and political bickering were some of the shenanigans that Kenyans were treated to after they had unanimously voted to change the order of the day!
In the 2007 general elections, it was tribalism that guided the voting pattern and that came at a price; 1300 were killed, thousands fatally wounded and hundreds of thousands were displaced from their homes in a thinly veiled ethnic-cleansing exercise fuelled, driven and funded by politicians.
Thanks to lack of politics of agenda, Kenya was at the precipice and up to date, the wounds of the 2007/08 post election violence are far from healing. No one seemed to have learnt the cost of electing corrupt and self-seeking individuals.
In the next elections, 2012/13, all signs were clear that most top contenders of the presidency were not agenda-driven. In principle, they were guided by Selectorate Theory of politics which mostly dwells on political survival and not development or delivery. This theory explains a situation where politicians want to stay in power but have no other ideological beliefs. Power is concentrated around one individual who has been pushed to the position by party insiders, media figures, and large campaign financiers among others.
Closer home, most individuals aspired to be president were banking on that theory and to an extent, they had no winning plan; their plans, in theory were ensuring that their opponents lost.
The G7 Alliance, for example, comprising Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa and Cyrus Jirongo among others banked on fielding as many Presidential candidates as possible to spoil the party for the then immediate former Prime Minister Odinga who was required to win in 24 Counties across the country to be president. All these individuals, when asked, had no idea what to do with power, when and if they got it.
I still wait to see the day that Kenyans can for once focus on agenda-driven leaders instead of the usual old dangerous tale of ethnicity, euphoria, greed and mob oratory.
Like any other developing nation, Kenyan politics are rarely driven by agenda or well laid-out party manifesto. They are guided by tribal sway, greed, euphoria and to an extent mob oratory.
In 1992, in the first ever multi-party elections in the country, the then incumbent Daniel Arap Moi managed to infiltrate the opposition because most of the presidential candidates were driven by an insentience need to get power. It’s through greed that the opposition was unable to form a solid and formidable force to get rid of Moi and in 1997, the same selfish drive was replicated.
In the 2002 general elections, the opposition with no viable way of defeating Moi’s protégé Uhuru Kenyatta unless they all worked together, managed to fan enough euphoria to secure a landslide victory against Moi’s two-decade iron rule which was characterized by grand corruption, neglect of the country’s infrastructure, a derelict economy and brazen suppressing of dissent among others.
There was hope; hope that Kenya could do better without having to shoulder debts from foreign countries; hope that there would be room for democracy to flourish; hope that Kenyans had finally elected leaders who would unite them without promoting ethnic politics and hope that Kenyans had finally elected individuals who were development conscious.
But, unfortunately, most of the elected individuals were in office because of the euphoria that had swept across the country. By the virtue of being tired with the KANU rule, Kenyans were desperate to get rid of Moi and the only formidable force was the Mwai Kibaki led NARC.
But excitement is always short-lived and after all the dancing, cheering, ululating and chest thumping after “embarrassing” Moi, Kenyans wanted promises delivered and they were in for a rude shock: grand corruption, betrayal after NARC reneged on its promise to deliver a new constitution in 100 days, nepotism, bloated cabinet and political bickering were some of the shenanigans that Kenyans were treated to after they had unanimously voted to change the order of the day!
In the 2007 general elections, it was tribalism that guided the voting pattern and that came at a price; 1300 were killed, thousands fatally wounded and hundreds of thousands were displaced from their homes in a thinly veiled ethnic-cleansing exercise fuelled, driven and funded by politicians.
Thanks to lack of politics of agenda, Kenya was at the precipice and up to date, the wounds of the 2007/08 post election violence are far from healing. No one seemed to have learnt the cost of electing corrupt and self-seeking individuals.
In the next elections, 2012/13, all signs were clear that most top contenders of the presidency were not agenda-driven. In principle, they were guided by Selectorate Theory of politics which mostly dwells on political survival and not development or delivery. This theory explains a situation where politicians want to stay in power but have no other ideological beliefs. Power is concentrated around one individual who has been pushed to the position by party insiders, media figures, and large campaign financiers among others.
Closer home, most individuals aspired to be president were banking on that theory and to an extent, they had no winning plan; their plans, in theory were ensuring that their opponents lost.
The G7 Alliance, for example, comprising Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa and Cyrus Jirongo among others banked on fielding as many Presidential candidates as possible to spoil the party for the then immediate former Prime Minister Odinga who was required to win in 24 Counties across the country to be president. All these individuals, when asked, had no idea what to do with power, when and if they got it.
I still wait to see the day that Kenyans can for once focus on agenda-driven leaders instead of the usual old dangerous tale of ethnicity, euphoria, greed and mob oratory.
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